A Legacy of Power Turned to Dust
Under the grey skies of Pervomais’k, Ukraine‘s once-mighty nuclear missile base has become a solemn museum of a bygone era. The sprawling site, once a cornerstone of the Soviet Union’s nuclear program, now stands as a testament to Ukraine’s dramatic choice to relinquish its nuclear arsenal in 1994. The decision, seen as logical at the time, is now the subject of intense debate, especially amidst the ongoing war with Russia.
A Monument to Missed Security Guarantees
Thirty years ago, Ukraine, along with Belarus and Kazakhstan, agreed to hand over its nuclear weapons to Russia in exchange for security assurances from the US, UK, France, China, and Russia under the Budapest Memorandum. The move symbolized hope for a peaceful future, but many Ukrainians now see it as a grave mistake.
“This document failed to secure Ukrainian security,” declared Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha, brandishing a copy of the Memorandum at a NATO meeting. He called it “a monument to short-sightedness in strategic decision-making.”
The Naivety of Trust
At the time, leaders like Serhiy Komisarenko, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK, trusted that international assurances would be enough to protect their sovereignty. The financial burden of maintaining nuclear arms also seemed insurmountable for a young nation emerging from Soviet rule. “We were naive, but we trusted,” Komisarenko admitted.
But Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and its 2022 invasion shattered those assumptions. For many Ukrainians, the absence of nuclear deterrence now looms as a stark reminder of the risks of misplaced trust.
Could Nuclear Weapons Return?
With NATO’s commitment to Ukraine’s membership still unclear and ongoing peace negotiations clouded by uncertainty, some experts suggest Ukraine may have to consider rebuilding its nuclear capabilities. Former Deputy Defense Minister Alina Frolova hinted that discussions are ongoing, though officials deny any concrete plans.
“If we find ourselves abandoned and losing this war, protecting our people might require rethinking nuclear options,” Frolova said.
Preserving a Painful History
Pervomais’k’s museum offers a sobering glimpse into Ukraine’s Cold War past. Visitors can explore the last intact missile silo, with its steel doors, subterranean tunnels, and cramped control rooms. Former technician Oleksandr Sushchenko reflects on how Ukraine could have retained a limited tactical arsenal for defense. “As it turns out, the enemy was much closer,” he said.
A Path Forward
For President Volodymyr Zelensky, NATO membership remains the only viable path to lasting security. However, divisions among alliance members leave Ukraine in a precarious position. As the war continues and global dynamics shift, Ukraine must weigh its options carefully to avoid repeating past mistakes.
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BBC News, CNN, Reuters, The Guardian
