Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU conservatives have emerged victorious in Germany’s election, securing a lead over rival parties but falling short of the anticipated 30% vote share. “Let’s celebrate tonight and in the morning we’ll get to work,” Merz told cheering supporters. He acknowledged the weight of responsibility now placed upon him following the election results.
The other major outcome of the election was the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieving a record-breaking second-place result with 20.8%. Despite the AfD’s significant gains, their candidate for chancellor, Alice Weidel, admitted that the party had hoped for an even better outcome. The mood at the AfD headquarters remained subdued despite the success. Meanwhile, CDU/CSU maintained a dominant presence, especially in western Germany, where they solidified their position as the leading political force.
As election results poured in on Monday morning, it became evident that the AfD had made significant strides in the east, securing a projected 34% according to public broadcaster ZDF. “Germans have voted for change,” Weidel declared. She also predicted that CDU/CSU would struggle to form a coalition and forecasted fresh elections within a shorter time frame. However, while AfD gained ground in the east, much of the rest of Germany turned black—the signature color of CDU/CSU—indicating their stronghold across the nation.
Following the collapse of Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition last year, Merz had sought a decisive mandate to build a streamlined coalition with a single partner. He assured voters that this approach would allow him to address pressing issues such as economic stagnation and border control. However, German voters had other plans. Turnout reached an impressive 83%, the highest since reunification in 1990, yet CDU/CSU secured only 28.6% of the vote alongside their Bavarian sister party. The results fell below their expectations, underscoring the challenges ahead.
Merz has firmly ruled out any collaboration with AfD, reinforcing the longstanding “firewall” in German politics that prevents mainstream parties from engaging with the far right. However, CDU/CSU faces another hurdle: their most viable partner, the Social Democrats (SPD), suffered their worst-ever result with only 16.4% of the vote. Outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz described the outcome as a bitter defeat and confirmed that SPD would not participate in coalition negotiations with Merz’s conservatives.
Given CDU/CSU‘s underwhelming performance, initial doubts arose regarding the feasibility of a two-party coalition. Germany recently endured four years under a complex three-party alliance, and the only remaining realistic option appeared to be the Greens. However, tensions between the two parties surfaced, particularly after Merz publicly mocked Green leader Robert Habeck as a “representative for heat pumps” just before the election. These factors add another layer of complexity to coalition-building efforts for CDU/CSU, leaving Germany’s political future uncertain.
